2027 Eastern European Super Outbreak
The 2027 Eastern European Super Outbreak was a record breaking tornado outbreak that occurred in early May of 2027 in Northeastern Europe. It was the most severe, destructive, and deadly tornado outbreak in European history, featuring a record-breaking 4 violent tornadoes. The countries of Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, and Russia all experienced significant tornadoes, with Poland, Lithuania, and Russia experiencing violent tornadoes (F4 or stronger). May 7th was the most active day of the outbreak, with 9 tornadoes touching down, including the strongest, deadliest, most damaging, and longest tracked tornado of the outbreak, which tore a 163 mile (262 km) long damage path through Northeastern Poland, Southeastern Lithuania, and Northwestern Belarus. Typically, Lithuania records around 2 tornadoes per year, but in this outbreak, 5 tornadoes caused recorded damage in Lithuania within 3 days. In total, the outbreak resulted in 1901 fatalities, with 1784 of them from the Vilnius F5 tornado, and more than 13,723 injuries, with more than 10,000 of them from the F5 Vilnius tornado. The damage toll reached $3.5 billion, with $2.9 billion caused by the F5 Vilnius tornado. Meteorological synopsis In early May, a warm dry front from southern Europe collided with a cool moist front from Scandinavia. The collision of fronts resulted in conditions favorable for thunderstorm formation, and extremely high CAPE values of 4000 - 5000 J/kg with high upper shear meant that there was a high chance of supercell formation. The storm system that eventually resulted in the outbreak started forming late on May 6th, over the southern Baltic Sea, and moved generally east-northeast until it died out late on May 9th over northeastern Belarus and southwestern Russia. Probabilities of tornado formation were not issued by any official weather agency, however unofficial agencies issued a peak tornado formation probability of 60%. Notable tornadoes May 7th event May 8th event May 9th event The Suwalki - Alytus - Vilnius tornado ''Main article: 2027 Lithuanian Tornado Disaster'' At 7:29 AM EEST (4:29 AM UTC), the tornado touched down in Podlaskie Voivodeship, 15 kilometres west-southwest of the city of Suwałki, and became the first confirmed tornado of the outbreak sequence. The 250-metre wide stovepipe F0 tornado quickly intensified into an F1 and moved through southern Suwałki city, causing moderate damage. After moving through Suwałki, the tornado weakened back to an F0 while starting to widen. At around 8 AM, north of Sejny, the tornado began producing F1 damage again, and F2 damage was found almost exactly on the Polish - Lithuanian border. After crossing into Lithuania, the now 1-kilometre wide F2 tornado passed through the town of Lazdijai, severely damaging several Soviet-era apartment blocks. After that, the tornado became an F3 and passed over the lakes Dusia and Metelys. At around 8:35 AM, the city of Alytus was struck by the F3 wedge tornado, and suffered severe damage, with some apartment blocks suffering partial collapse, and numerous private homes being completely destroyed. Up to that point, the tornado had caused $315 million in damages, and resulted in 127 deaths. After the reports of an extremely damaging tornado to the emergency services reached well into the tens of thousands, civil defense sirens were sounded all over Vilnius county, and an official warning, the first of its kind, was broadcasted over television, radio, and text messages. Overall, it is estimated that at least 700 thousand people received the warning, greatly reducing the eventual death and injury count. As the tornado crossed over plains, it briefly weakened to an F2, but by 9 AM had intensified to an F4 wedge tornado. At 9:10 AM, while the tornado was affecting the A16 highway with its very edge, the first F5 damages were recorded, with severe ground scouring and homes completely swept away. At around 9:15 AM, the edge of the tornado affected the city of Trakai, while the tornado weakened to an F4 while crossing the A16 highway. 9 deaths and $20 million in damages were recorded in the general area. The tornado was for a short time an F4, before restrengthening to an F5 at 9:20 AM, just before hitting the A1 highway. There, it lifted numerous cars and carried some kilometers away. By 9:25 AM, the tornado had produced F4 and F5 damages to the city itself, while crossing Oslo street. While in Vilnius, the tornado passed over the Lazdynai, Naujamiestis, and Žvėrynas districts, before passing almost straight over the city center in the old town at 9:30 AM. After that, Užupis, Šnipiškės, and Žirmūnai districts were struck. All affected districts in Vilnius city had F5 damage in them as the tornado passed right through the center of the city as a 3 kilometer (1.9 mile) wide F5 wedge tornado. Many hundreds of buildings, including almost two hundred concrete panel buildings, were severely or completely destroyed. Out of the 1784 total deaths from the tornado, 1614 occurred in Vilnius city, as well as over 10 thousand injuries, and over $2.465 billion in damages, heavily damaging the Lithuanian economy. At around 9:40 AM, after leaving Vilnius city, the tornado weakened to an F4 again, and began to decrease in width. The tornado had no problems clearing a path kilometers wide through a forest, and continued weakening as it approached the Belarus border. By 10 AM, the tornado had crossed the border, and became the most powerful tornado in the country's history, as it still was a wide F4 tornado for a few minutes in Belarus. Afterwards, it continued to weaken, becoming an F3 just a few minutes after crossing the border, and an F2 by 10:15 AM. However, it started to widen again, and became an F1 by 10:20 AM, still widening. At around 10:30 AM, it weakened to an F0 tornado, but also peaked in width - at 3.5 kilometres (2.2 miles) wide. By 10:40 AM, it had reduced in width substantially, and by 10:45 AM, was just a weak rope F0 tornado, finally lifting off the ground at 10:47 AM, finishing off its 262 km (163 mile), 3 hour and 18 minute long track. From Vilnius to dissipation, the tornado resulted in $100 million in damage, and 34 deaths. Its parent thunderstorm continued moving in the general direction of east-northeast, until dissipating in Russia a few hours later. The TORRO research organization and the Lithuanian government both report total death and damage figures of 1784 and > $2.9 billion over all affected countries, respectively. Over two thousand buildings were severely damaged or destroyed. The number of injuries overall is over 10 thousand. Entire districts of Vilnius were heavily devastated, as well as almost the entirety of Alytus city. Thousands upon thousands of emergency calls were received in the time the tornado existed. The hardest hit areas were Trakai and Vilnius - both received F5 winds to some degree. In Trakai's outer parts, the tornado shred several private homes to pieces, completely clearing their foundations, as well as threw several entire trees around. In Vilnius city proper, several blocks of concrete apartment buildings were severely damaged or entirely destroyed, prompting a medium F5 rating for the tornado. Cars were found thrown over a mile (1.6 km) from their original locations. Private homes were once again completely cleared from their foundations, and many trees were severely debarked. A steel reinforced mall was found completely collapsed, which indicated possible winds of up to 300 mph. The Wloclawek - Sierpc tornado The second tornado of the outbreak formed at 08:11 UTC on May 7th, and generally moved through the Polish countryside causing violent tornado damage in several Polish villages with the most severely affected area located south of the city of Lipno at around 08:50 UTC, before dissipating at 09:23 UTC. The villages of Krzyzowki, Elzanowo, and many others were devastated or completely destroyed. It was rated a high end F4 tornado, however was potentially an F5 tornado. Seven people were killed by the tornado and significant local level monetary damages were reported. The tornado reached a maximum width of 0.4 miles or 0.64 kilometers, one of the widest tornadoes of the outbreak, and lasted moderately long, with a damage path 56.2 miles (90.5 km) long. In its aftermath, a state of emergency was declared in Northeastern and Central Poland in anticipation for stronger tornadoes. The Kaunas tornado The second tornado of the outbreak formed at 09:53 UTC on May 7th, and generally moved northeast through Central Lithuania. The tornado passed through the villages Klausučiai and Pupiai while intensifying. Eventually, as the tornado reached its peak strength and width, it had its closest approach to Kaunas city, passing just northwest of it, causing high end F2 damage in Raudondvaris and Domeikava villages at around 10:58 UTC. After passing near Kaunas, the tornado directly hit Jonava as it weakened at 11:15 UTC, causing some low end F2 damage in the city, before rapidly dissipating northeast of the city at 11:21 UTC. It was rated a high end F2 tornado. Thirteen people were killed by the tornado and over $20 million in damages were caused. The tornado reached a maximum width of 250 yards or 228.6 meters, and had a path 71 miles (114 km) long. It was overall one of the longest tracked tornadoes of the outbreak, and the third strongest tornado in Lithuania in the outbreak. The Elbag - Kwitajny tornado The last violent tornado on May 7th formed in Poland at around 11:21 UTC. It immediately moved northeast through several villages, intensifying and widening on the way. It hit the village of Kwitajny at around 11:41 UTC, at its peak width, causing devastating damage to the village. The tornado then started to weaken as it disorganized, losing its condensation funnel, and eventually, at 11:57 UTC, completely lifting off the ground. It caused devastating F4 damage to several locations, reportedly leaving no trace of some wooden houses. 3 people were killed by this tornado, and severe local damages were reported. The tornado reached a maximum width of 103 yards or 94.18 meters, and had a path 27.84 miles (44.8 km) long. It was the fourth strongest tornado of the outbreak, and the third out of four violent tornadoes in the outbreak. The Barki - Hranichi tornado Not much is known about this tornado due to the poor state of tornado record keeping in Belarus and the country's closed nature. The tornado formed on May 8th, at 12:03 UTC. It then moved through the Belarusian countryside until dissipating at 12:39 UTC. The tornado reached a maximum width of 300 yards or 274.32 meters, and had a path 30.7 miles (49.4 km) long. Four people died as a result of this tornado, however the figure is disputed. The Belarusian authorities rated the tornado an F3, but subsequent record analysis showed that Doppler on Wheels recorded F5 force winds, which means that the tornado was capable of causing F5 damage. Had that happened, it would have become the strongest tornado in Belarusian history. The Pasvalys - Biržai tornado On May 8th, at 13:26 UTC, a tornado was confirmed 14 kilometers east of the city of Pasvalys. It moved northeast along with the storm complex, and intensified along the way, causing severe tree damage with a narrow damage path. At around 13:45, the first instances of F3 damage were confirmed, in the form of uprooted trees thrown over 100 meters. At 13:53, the tornado hit the village of Drąseikiai, where the most severe of its damage was reported, with some of it being borderline F4. Afterwards, the tornado quickly weakened, and was confirmed to have lifted off the ground at 14:01, in the Lithuanian countryside. No deaths occurred from this tornado due to ample warning time, and overall this tornado was seen as a success for the public warning system. Damages were accounted as extreme locally, but not impactful on a country scale. The tornado reached a maximum width of 65 yards or 59.44 meters, and had a path 32.93 miles (53 km) long. After the tornado passed, all impacted municipalities were declared areas of disaster. The Nevel - Kunya - Toropets tornado The final tornado of the outbreak touched down on May 9th, at 13:06 UTC, just east of the city of Nevel. The tornado moved northeast, intensifying as it caused minor destruction along a road. The tornado quickly intensified, now ripping up entire trees and throwing concrete power poles like missiles. As it passed through the village of Borki just 10 minutes after touching down, it already produced F4 damage, repeating the same feat 5 minutes later in Stukany. The tornado then passed over a forest, barely missing Polibino, before hitting the village of Korovnitsa just before 13:30. In and around the village, the first F5 damage instances caused by the tornado were recorded, with some homes "almost missed in the survey, no foundations remaining". As the tornado headed towards a more empty area, it continued causing phenomenal damage, before weakening to F4 damage at around 13:40. The tornado continued in its weakened state for nearly an hour, usually missing villages, and reportedly nearly draining a lake. However, at 14:30, the tornado peaked in size and intensity as it struck the village of Mitkovo in Tver Oblast. Some of the most intense tornado damage worldwide was recorded there, leaving no trace of the village, ripping up concrete poles and throwing them many kilometers away, and even ripping up pavement. After its short lived peak intensity, the tornado quickly entered a weakening stage, before finally dissipating east of the city of Toropets at 14:51 UTC. Along its 82.64 mile (133 km) long path, the tornado reached F5 intensity twice, reached a max width of 1.5 miles (2.41 kilometers), and caused at least 94 deaths along its path, with a larger number reported as "unverifiable" due to the tornado's intensity. Severe local damages were reported, and a state of emergency was declared in the affected areas. Overall, the tornado was deemed the second F5 tornado to occur in Russia, and was also deemed to be one of the most intense worldwide, due to its phenomenal damage reports.